The Challenge With Thinking From First Principles

True first principle or erroneous assumption?

Photo of Konrad Adenauer
Konrad Adenauer,
first Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany
Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F078072–0004 / Katherine Young, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 de.

People are always going to have kids.

That sounds like a reasonable First Principle! After all, it’s literally in our nature to procreate. And as long as today’s workers have kids, there will be workers tomorrow paying for tomorrow’s pensioners.

Chart of birth and morality rates in Germany since 1950. In the 1960s, a steep drop in birth rates can be observed.
Source: Destatis



Head of Product at RevenueCat; previously at 8fit, Yammer, BCG.

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